Anna Dreber Almenberg
Anna Dreber Almenberg

Seminariet äger rum onsdag den 5 april 2017, kl 14-15 i rum 357, Frescati Hagväg 14, plan 3.

Abstract

There is increasing concern about reproducibility in science. Factors contributing to a lack of reproducibility include low statistical power, the testing of hypotheses with low prior probability of being true, publication bias and various degrees of researcher freedom such as p-hacking and forking. In a number of projects, we are assessing the reproducibility of published results. These are often done in large collaborations such as the Open Science Collaboration Reproducibility Project in Psychology. We also test whether prediction markets can be used to assess reproducibility. We compare prediction market forecasts to surveys of market participant’s individual forecasts. The prediction market also allows us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses to be true. We show that such probabilities can be assigned to an hypothesis for different points in the testing process: before and after the replication has been performed, and even before the original study has been performed. However, the market does not always perform better than survey measures. We discuss in detail our recent published projects in psychology and experimental economics (Science 2015 and 2016, PNAS 2015) as well ongoing research.

Avdelningen för personlighets-, social- och utvecklingspsykologi ansvarar för dagens seminarium.

Om Allmänna seminarieserien

Institutionens forskningsavdelningar samarbetar i Allmänna seminarieserien, där nationella och internationella forskare inbjuds att tala om aktuella forskningsämnen. Seminarierna äger rum onsdagar kl 14-15 i rum 357 om annat ej anges. Extraseminarier kan förekomma på andra dagar och tider, bl a halvtidsseminarier i forskarutbildningen.

Anmäl dig till vår populära e-postlista. Då får du ett meddelande ett par dagar före varje seminarium.